New analysis has put a stark figure on a familiar farm-business risk: much of England’s food production is concentrated in places already exposed to water stress.
The Guardian reported on 27 September that analysis by Rebalance Earth places 81% of England’s fresh produce in water-stressed areas. It also says 77% of wheat, 75% of barley, 74% of oilseed rape, 70% of sugar beet and 67% of potatoes are grown in areas assessed as having moderate to very high drought risk.
Those figures describe geographic exposure, not the probability that an individual crop or farm will fail. They should not be used as a farm-level forecast. They do, however, reinforce the need to treat water as an operational and financial constraint rather than a problem to address only when irrigation is restricted.
The latest Environment Agency update gives that warning practical weight. For 18-24 September, it reported ten English areas in drought and the rest in prolonged dry weather. Some reservoirs and farm storage were at only 0% to 20% capacity, while 533 abstraction licences carried restrictions and 1,383 voluntary restrictions were reducing abstraction by 50%.
Here are seven checks to turn that national picture into a farm-specific plan.
1. Calculate demand by enterprise and month
Start with the litres or cubic metres actually required, not a broad description such as “irrigated farm” or “livestock water”. Separate human consumption, livestock, crop irrigation, spraying, washing, cooling, fire response and any processing or diversification use.
Map demand by week or month and identify the peak. Record which uses are essential for welfare, food safety or crop survival and which can be delayed or reduced. Include the effect of herd changes, extra rented ground, a new crop, staff accommodation and hotter conditions.
Then compare demand with reliable supply-not nominal capacity. A borehole, reservoir or mains connection is only useful to the extent that its licence, yield, pump, pipework, power and water quality allow it to deliver when required.
2. Test every source and its single points of failure
List each source, abstraction point, tank and reservoir, then trace the route to the field, trough, wash point or building. Note pump capacity, power supply, filters, valves, connectors, telemetry and access for repair.
Ask what happens if the main pump fails during a heatwave, a pipe is damaged at harvest or a reservoir cannot refill over winter. Check whether a generator, spare pump or tanker connection is genuinely compatible rather than merely available somewhere on the farm.
Inspect storage for leaks, silt, damaged liners, unsafe access and inaccurate level indicators. A paper capacity is not the same as usable water. Record the tested output and the date, then assign each repair or upgrade to a named person.
3. Read the abstraction licence before planning around it
The Environment Agency’s weekly data shows that restrictions are not theoretical. Formal Section 57 restrictions remained in parts of East Anglia, and voluntary restrictions covered several catchments.
Review the exact source, quantities, dates, hands-off flow conditions, reporting requirements and any local restriction. Do not assume last year’s arrangement still applies. Keep the licence, meter records and Environment Agency contact details accessible to the manager responsible for water decisions.
If supply is becoming uncertain, contact the regulator early. Defra says possible flexibilities can include changes to abstraction seasons, earlier reservoir filling when conditions permit, water-rights trading, licence combinations or changes to abstraction points. These are assessed case by case and are not automatic permission.
4. Set trigger points before storage becomes critical
A useful drought plan says what action starts at each storage level or forecast position. It does not wait until the farm is almost empty.
Possible triggers include a percentage of usable storage, a borehole recovery rate, a restriction notice, a two-week weather outlook or a crop-stage threshold. Link each trigger to a pre-agreed response: increase monitoring, reduce non-essential washing, prioritise a block, change grazing, order temporary storage or call the Environment Agency and water supplier.
Make the trigger visible on a simple dashboard. Record who has authority to change irrigation priorities or incur emergency cost. That avoids a delay while several people assume somebody else is watching the level.
5. Rework crop and livestock plans with real numbers
AHDB’s final harvest report, published on 25 September, found average winter wheat yields in its survey sample around 11% below the five-year average. Spring barley was about 17% below and oats about 14% below, although results varied sharply by farm and region. Oilseed rape performed better on average.
That national survey does not predict next season. Use it as a prompt to revisit the assumptions behind rotation, drilling date, soil type, expected yield, contract exposure and water requirement on your own land.
For livestock, calculate peak drinking demand, trough recovery and emergency supply. Include youngstock, housed animals and remote grazing. Identify the point at which a field or building becomes untenable and the practical route for moving stock without creating a transport or welfare problem.
6. Build an investment case, not a shopping list
Storage, pipework, pumps, rainwater capture, meters, soil improvements and changed cropping can all play a part, but the right combination is site-specific.
Price the full system: surveys, design, planning, abstraction rights, construction, power, maintenance, water treatment, safety controls and lost land. Compare it with the cost of yield loss, emergency tankering, reduced output or a missed contract. Test the business case against more than one dry-year scenario.
Defra announced up to £15 million for a Water Management Grant in August, aimed at on-farm storage for crop irrigation. Treat that as a potential contribution, not guaranteed funding. Confirm current eligibility and application details before committing expenditure.
7. Put the plan in the hands of operators
A drought plan fails if it sits in an office while the people opening valves, moving bowsers or driving irrigators do not know the current priority.
Give operators a short briefing covering permitted sources, meter readings, trigger levels, field priorities, pollution controls, defect reporting and who can authorise a change. Keep instructions current in the yard and relevant cabs, but maintain one controlled master copy.
Farm Packs’ focus on cab readiness offers a useful principle here: the person doing the job needs the right information where the decision is made. That does not mean filling a cab with paperwork. A dated, one-page operating sheet and reliable contact list are more useful than an obsolete folder.
Review one vulnerable system this week
Choose the enterprise that would be affected first by a supply shortfall. Confirm its weekly demand, usable storage, licence conditions, delivery route, failure points and trigger actions. Give every gap an owner and deadline.
Recent rain may reduce immediate demand, but the Environment Agency warns that winter refill remains uncertain in some areas. The commercial lesson is simple: drought resilience is built before the next restriction, pump failure or dry spring-not after it.
This article provides general information and does not replace an abstraction licence, regulator instruction, professional design, veterinary advice, agronomy advice or a farm-specific risk assessment.
Sources
The Guardian: Most of UK’s essential food supply grown in drought-risk areas - 27 September 2026
Environment Agency: Dry weather and drought in England, 18-24 September 2026 - 25 September 2026
AHDB: Final harvest report confirms cereal yields below historic averages - 25 September 2026
Defra Farming Blog: New drought support for farmers - 15 August 2026
